Bill Gates famously said that most people overestimate the effect of technology in the short term and underestimate the effect in the long time. This is easy to see as progress in technology is cumulative and incremental.
With this in mind it is interesting to see what Michael Pachter, an analyst from Wedbush Morgan has to say about downloaded games. He reckons they will be worth $400 million this year, just 2% of the market. He goes on to say: “Downloads will become 20 percent of the market within five years, and probably peak at around 50 percent of the overall market in 10 years.”
In ten years time we will be enjoying the Sony Playstation PS5 and the Microsoft Xbox 1440. I really cannot see these devices using any physical media for distributing games. Progress over 10 years is immense. Ten years ago my internet came over the latest, red hot, 56K modem technology, now, even in low technology UK, I am cruising along at 10 Mb/sec. And in more advanced South Korea 100Mb/sec is the norm with 1 Gb/sec rolling out soon. Ten years is almost forever when it comes to the evolution of digital telecoms.
So not only do I think that Michael Pachter is wrong, you can also clearly see why this should be the case.