TVG has predicted that Playstation PS3 sales are going to overtake Xbox 360 sales in January 2011. Using the flakiest of science. All they have done is to extend sales projections graphs. To extrapolate a trend. Why this is so wrong:
- If you do a graph of ice cream sales in a April, May and June, then extend it you will find that you are going to have absolutely enormous ice cream sales in November.
- The graphs of every consoles sales in every generation fit under a curve, not a straight line. Why should this generation be different and follow a straight line?
- Sales of consoles are demand elastic for price. The cheaper they are the more you will sell, all other things being equal. Microsoft have demonstrated that they can sell the 360 vastly cheaper than Sony can sell the PS3. This is because the 360 is a far more elegant design and because Microsoft have lots of money whilst Sony don’t.
- The Xbox 360 has an effective relaunch coming up with the introduction of Natal, which offers a step change in home console capabilities. This could very well make the 360 a must have device.
- On the other hand the PS3 is about to be relaunched as the PS3 Slim at a lower price and Sony have three MMOs coming to the machine that could attract massive audiences.
- Gamasutra have analysed the methodology and are also pretty scathing.
If you really want to know what the comparative sales of these two consoles you would be far better off starting a flame war on a forum about it. You would still be wrong, but at least you would be having some fun.