As to last year’s Wii customers now buying a 360/PS3. I reckon that they will keep both attached to their TV and then just buy the games they want to play, some of which will be on one platform and some on the other.

I am hoping that Sony figures out the right steps. From a business perspective, I share your criticisms of Sony. But as a gamer, I am delighted that Sony shot for the moon with the PS3. I am not in the Wii demographic, so that was not a choice for me. The 360 is a solid machine, pretty much what I expected of a next gen console. But the PS3 has been a bit of a surprise — several new and interesting features, a bigger jump than I expected. The over-reaching on the PS3 has hurt Sony financially, but it has given gamers a distinct choice that they would not have if Sony, like Microsoft, had played it safer. If I didn’t own a 360 now, I would definitely snap up a PS3.

Also (this is entirely anecdotal), the staff of my local game store tells me their PS2 customers are holding out nearly 8 to 2 for the right time to get a PS3. I don’t know how universal that statistic is, but it is a good sign for Sony if it holds up.

And, of even more interest, the game store staff tells me that most of the pre-teens and teens who got a Wii last holiday season are clamoring for a 360 or PS3 this season. I don’t think this is bad news for Nintendo because the opportunity for new Wii customers is huge. But it may be good news for Microsoft and Sony — it looks like the Wii might eventually bring new gamers to the 360 and PS3.

I think Halo 3 will have an immense effect on the position of the 360. That and the 100 other games Microsoft are releasing this holiday season should convert quite a few Sony fanboys over.

Against this Sony have announced that PS3s with rumble will not be available in Europe and America till next year. This will at best delay many purchasers, at worst it is more incentive to switch brand this generation. The delay to the Home online system does not help either as Xbox live goes from strength to strength.

Another major factor to consider is that Microsoft will have a lot of leeway next year to reduce their system price. It is a lot cheaper to make than the PS3 so they will be able to maintain a healthy price advantage right through the generation.

I remain convinced that Microsoft will stay ahead of Sony this time. Things are going to need to change a lot for it to be otherwise.

More importantly, the numbers seem to show that most gamers have not yet made their next gen console choice. And for gamers who have delayed this long to buy a next gen console, there simply is no longer a compelling reason to choose the 360 over the PS3. Although the 360 will sell extremely well this holiday season, I suspect that the bulk of the PS2 and Wii gamers, when they begin to upgrade in 2008 and 2009, will choose the PS3 over the 360.

Finally, the 360 has simply not made as much ground internationally as it needed to in order to sustain a lead over the PS3 worldwide. Clearly, Microsoft has done a great job of improving their position against Sony compared to the last gen, but it looks like it will take at least one more generation before it can sustain a lead over Sony. And, of course, I suspect that Sony has also learned a few lessons this time around which it will apply to future gaming initiatives. Competition is a great thing!