Entries from September 2007 ↓

I was at E3 in 2004 when Sony launched the PSP. They were at the height of their PS2 pomp then, so there was close to mass hysteria for the new device, with multi-hour long queues just to see it. At the same show another manufacturer launched their new handheld gaming platform to far less hype and acclaim. I am of course talking about the Nintendo DS.

One evening, at the bar, after a long day at E3, I told some of the directors of Codemasters that I thought that the DS would be the more successful device. And they laughed at me. They went on to put several games on to the PSP, none of which sold very many copies.

So what did I see that was wrong with the PSP?:

• It was just too big to be a true portable device. I have a number of portable technology toys. A Nokia 6300, a Canon Ixus 950 IS, a video iPod and a DS lite. None of these are anything like the size of the PSP because their designers know what portable means.
• The Universal Media Disk (UMD). This was just Sony trying it on again. World domination through media standards. With precisely zero chance of it ever succeeding.
• Battery life. The big screen and rotating disk on a portable device are just not compatible with being able to use it for long. In the real world it seems to average out at about 4 hours when used as a games machine, which is more than I expected but nowhere near enough.
• The large unprotected screen. I thought that this would be fragile but it turned out not to be.
• Non compatability with PS1 or PS2. What were they thinking of? They could have had a huge body of games from day one. But in their arrogance they expected the world’s development community to do all the work of writing afresh for yet another platform.

Now you might say that I was wrong. That Sony have sold 25 million (or whatever, real figures are avoided) in less than three years. But this ignores the fact that this industry is like the shaving industry. The profit is not in the razor, it is in the blades. And on the PSP games just don’t sell. It was also meant to be a movie player but movies on UMD disks don’t sell either.

So what are PSPs used for? Well, I suspect that a lot of them aren’t. Used that is, they were bought as part of the hype and then consigned to a draw once the failing were exposed. And a lot of them are used as media players for films downloaded (pirated) over the internet then put onto the Memory Stick. A 256 Mbyte stick will easily hold a 100 minute movie.

Of course there are other PSP problems that I didn’t see at the launch:

• Over simple and limited web browser.
• Very slow game loading from the UMD.
• Old fashioned user interface (compared with DS). More on this in an article next tuesday.
• Only one analogue nub (and that very badly positioned) which complicates adapting games from their other platforms.
• A built in TV tuner would have been very nice.

So is the PSP doomed, dwindling away till Sony do the decent thing? Or will the new Slim and Lite mark a turning point and get this machine a lot of attention and success. Use the comments to let us know.

In the video gaming industry we have never, ever, before had it as good as it is now. We are in clover, just look at what is happening:

• For the first time there is enough business to support 6 major successful platforms at the same time (PS2, PS3, Wii, 360, DS, PC). Then there is the ill conceived PSP which, quite frankly, is trying to push water uphill. But that is a different story.
• In Halo 3 we have one of the biggest grossing entertainment events ever. And it is a brilliant product.
• At long last the gaming demographics are opening up. Soon we will be regarded as entertainment for all. Despite the Daily Mail.
• Nintendo are making more money in this industry than any other company has ever done before. They are now the second most valuable company in Japan. And even Microsoft gaming division looks set to make their first profit next quarter.
• The analysts think that the industry is going to grow over 40% over the next two years to $47 billion annual turnover.
• Most of the world’s major media companies are entering the market with massive investments.
• The iPod and iPhone are emerging as gaming platforms.
• Electronic Arts, the biggest independent publisher, are at long last bringing lots of new, original IP to the market.
• We have retained the capacity to innovate.
• UK game retailer Game has seen their like on like sales for the first half of this year increase by 45% from the year before.
• And so on. There is just so much good news out there.

So are you enjoying good times? Or are they passing you by? Use the comments to let us know!

Regular readers will know that publisher consolidation is an economic inevitablity, the scale advantages of being big and global are so great that anything less (with our current business model) will be squeezed out. Also the big film studios will have a big part to play, as role models, as co users of IP and as game publishers themselves as our industry grows to be bigger than theirs. Three stories currently in the news serve to give even more credence to these views.

EIDOS are for sale, we all know that. According to The Times there are now three bidders. Time Warner, who obviously can see the writing on the wall for the future of entertainment. Ubisoft, who presumably are trying to build a pan European champion to take on the Americans. And someone fron China who is presumably going to use it as the basis of a lot more aquisitions, sees it as a short term investment or doesn’t know what they are doing. To me the people who should be buying EIDOS are Take Two. This is because they have lots of money and a narrow IP base that desperately needs expanding. They could very easily afford EIDOS and they would almost certainly be able to make better use of the IP than the other players. It is just a pity that their management is in a bit of turmoil.

Square Enix are a very successful Japanese publisher of RPGs, however only 10 to 20% of their turnover comes from outside Japan. Now they are looking for an American partner and want to get 50% of their revenue from outside Japan within three years. This goes back to my proposal a few years ago to the owners of Codemasters, a strategic 3 way strategic alliance between mid sized European, Japanese and American publishers (with or without equity swap) has the potential to create a global player in a very quick and efficient manner. This may now be a good survival route for quite a few publishers to go down.

EA became the monster it is by piggy backing IP from other entertainment industries. But now they are behaving in a far more mature way. And this means that they can see that only getting 6% of their turnover from Asia is not only bad, it is dangerous for them. It is a weakness as we approach an age where being a true global player is essential for a publisher. So it is no suprise that EA announced at Tokyo Games Show that they are looking for Japanese partners. This has to be an absolute top priority for them. Jon Niermann, president of EA Asia said EA are “exploring everything”. This is an excellent open minded approach and augers well for the future of EA. 

These news stories are just a small taste of what is to come. There are still just far too many publishers for a realistic model of how publishing works and the immense potential of gaming is at last getting the serious attention of major global media companies.

So are you a buyer or a seller in this consolidation marketplace? Or are online distribution and niche publishing going to undo the plans and ambitions of these giant companies?

In America, according to the Denizens of Digitivity survey by JWT. Over 1.000 people were surveyed on September 7 to 11. Of which 44% of the female respondents and 39% of the male respondents said they had a games console.

The slight pinch of salt here is that the survey was online, so open to all sorts of creative fun. Which is not unknown.

However, taken at face value, this represents the seismic shift in gaming demography over the last 2 years which has been measured and reported on elsewhere. It certainly moves the industry further away from the old (or current if you are the Daily Mail or Fox News) preconception that video games are for adolescent boys.

What is behind this is the dawning realisation that interactive entertainment can be for normal people of all ages and both sexes. And the Nintendo Wii. In fact as gaming develops to become as everyday as watching television I can see the women pulling out and maintaining a genuine lead over men in game playing. And I don’t mean FPS games here! The fact is that women are more sociable and whilst gaming is already a social activity it will grow to be even more of one.

I do hope that this news is seen by every single executive in the gaming industry. It is not just the Daily Mail that has ignorant notions about the industry.

So is this being a sexist dinosaur? Or are the women taking over gaming like they have most other things? Post your thoughts.

Halo 3 is launched.

Goldman Sachs reckon it will bring $170 million in revenue for Microsoft in their Q1 (which starts in 5 days time so that is not counting in initial sales). This will bring the Microsoft gaming division their first ever profitable quarter. Thousands of stores all over the world opened at midnight to comply with the embargo and meet demand. Microsoft reckon that 1.5 million units (a very convenient figure) have been pre ordered in America alone (and it is launched in 37 countries).

This is more than a video game release. It is a cultural event.

As I have said before I expect shortages of 360 consoles in the shops for months, Microsoft just won’t be able to make enough. And remember that there are 100 other 360 games released this holiday season.

I predict that this will lead to a massive boom in analysis. The sunday papers will be full of it, as will a lot of other media. Our whole industry will be in the spotlight like never before. In a positive way. Now is the time to be an industry pundit!

So do you have any analysis of your own? Post it here in the comments section for all to see!

I couldn’t believe my ears. Last night there was a piece on BBC Radio 4 (national, upmarket talk radio) about gaming demographics and pensioners playing Wii games. They had two industry pundits in the studio and one of them quoted almost verbatim from this article on here. Without giving any credit. So he gets paid by the BBC for quoting my ideas. It could be a major coincidence of great minds thinking alike. But I doubt it.

Now I really don’t mind who uses the content from here or how they use it. Just, please, say where you got it from. I want to be famous too.

For many years now the movie industry has put a lot of work into the quality of your cinema going experiences. They have used technology to ensure that the picture and sound quality is consistent and accurate. So that everything that you see and hear is exactly as the studio intended. And they use this authenticity as a marketing tool.

Now it is possible for us in the games industry to go some way to ensure that our customers have as authentic an experience as possible. What I am talking about here is using technology to calibrate all the monitors in a studio to give a perfect image. So the game looks like it’s makers intended. Obviously you are still relying on the calibration of the customer’s monitor. But at least you are half way there and you know that if the customer has their monitor set correctly they will see the game exactly as it was seen under development and so exactly as the development team wanted. Of course keen gamers can use the same technology themselves.

The technology is the SpyderTV PRO™ 2007 from Datacolor of  Lawrenceville, NJ, USA and consists of a piece of test equipment and some software.  This scientifically measures contrast, brightness, colour, tint, colour temperature presets and cuts/gains so you can quickly and easily calibrate every monitor in the studio to perfection. Then you will know what your game really looks like! Here is a review.

Remarkably the Spyder only costs $1199, so this is not an affordability issue.

Of course this low price means that keen gamers can buy a Spyder themselves to set up their own televisions and monitors. This means that they will see a game exactly as that game’s designers saw the game when they were developing it (as long as the developers used a Spyder). A really nice level of authenticity.

So do you think this is a cheap way to getting a great technical feature that you can use to help you market your games? Or just another toy for your tekkies to play with?